By county: 2026 early votes against 2022's whole vote
How these scenarios work
Early votes
"Early" here means everything in the State Board of Elections absentee report from the Saturday before Election Day: no-excuse in-person early voting (Thursday to Saturday), mail ballots returned, excused in-person absentee and military/overseas ballots. Mail ballots that arrive after that Saturday count as Election Day here, so every year is measured the same way.
Total vote and Election Day
The total vote is the official statewide result in the top race: U.S. Senate in 2022, governor in 2023 and president in 2024. Election Day is that total minus the early votes. Turnout scenarios divide 2026's early votes by the early share of a past year. The early share grew a lot in 2024, so the scenarios cover a wide range.
Registration is not a vote
The early vote is reported by party registration, not by candidate. Many registered Democrats in Kentucky vote Republican. The "gap" chart shows how far the final result moved from the early voters' registration in each past year. Applying that move to 2026 is a rough what-if, not a prediction.